Bukit Merah: what a changing climate means, and when
Bukit Merah: little of the land is low-lying. Island-wide, flash-flood downpours reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level in about 64 years (2090) at today's pace.
At today's pace of emissions. An area-wide estimate for Bukit Merah planning area, not a reading for any one building.
Coastal: another tenth of the area's land sits below the safety line (3 m above mean sea level plus projected sea-level rise). Heat: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C. Flash-flood downpours: days with 50 mm or more of rain across Singapore reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level; one date for every area, since the rain model can't tell neighbouring areas apart. For local flooding, see PUB's list below. Mortgage and lease are counted from today.
If you own in Bukit Merah
The island-wide downpour date falls after a 30-year mortgage and inside a 99-year lease.
2026TodayAbout 5% of the land is below the safety line, protected by seawalls, tidal gates and drains.
205630-year mortgage endsIf taken out today.
2090Flash-flood downpours · 64 yearsIsland-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level.
2100HeatThis date is not reached by here, which is as far as that data goes.
212599-year lease endsIf it started today. Count from your own start date.
2150CoastalNo coastal date by here, which is as far as the sea-level data goes.
What to raise with your managing agent or town council
What is the ground level of our block, in metres above mean sea level?
How high is the basement carpark entrance above the road?
When is coastal protection planned for this stretch of coast?
Is our street one of the 4 flood-prone areas or hotspots PUB lists in Bukit Merah?
If you are buying in Bukit Merah
6 questions to take to a viewing.
Sea level: not before 2150
Little of the land is low-lying: 5% is below the safety line today and 11% by 2100.
What is the ground level of this block, in metres above mean sea level?
Is there a basement carpark or basement unit, and how high is its entrance above the road?
When is coastal protection planned for this stretch of coast, and has PUB's study for it been completed?
Flash floods: inside a 99-year lease
PUB lists 4 flood-prone areas or hotspots in Bukit Merah. Island-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain go from 6.6 to 8.7 a year by 2100, reaching 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level by 2090.
PUB lists 4 flood-prone areas or hotspots in Bukit Merah. Is this street one of them, and has its drainage been upgraded?
Has the carpark or ground floor ponded in heavy rain before?
Heat: not before 2100
Days at or above 35°C go from 1 to 7 a year by 2100, staying under 30 a year.
Which way does the unit face, and how much afternoon sun does it take?
The numbers
Today
2050
2100
Land below the safety line
5%
7%
11%
Days at or above 35°C a year
1
2
7
Days with 50 mm or more of rain a year, island-wide
6.6
7.6
8.7
At today's pace of emissions (SSP2-4.5). "Today" is modelled, not measured. Bukit Merah covers 14.5 km² with a median ground height of 7.9 m.
PUB flood-prone areas and hotspots in Bukit Merah
Prince Philip Avenue / Jervois Road (flood-prone area)
Indus Road (from Havelock Road to Ganges Avenue) (flood-prone area)
State Land at junction of Alexandra Road and Lower Delta Road (flood-prone area)
Former Boys' Brigade HQ at Zion Road (flood-prone area)
In the middle of 55 areas by day; hotter than most at night. Satellite readings of the ground surface, not the air: Landsat by day (2016–2025), MODIS at night, ESA WorldCover for trees. They describe today, not a forecast.
An independent project, not produced or endorsed by CCRS, NEA, PUB, URA or any government agency. Low land in Singapore is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains; these dates show when more of it will depend on that protection. Prompts, not property, insurance or investment advice.